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Stock Market Fundamental & Technical Analysis 10-29-18

158 ratings | 3522 views
Technical analysis of the US stock market followed by a discussion of several fundamental developments that have the potential to trigger an even larger sell-off in US stocks.
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Text Comments (34)
Mario cruz (4 months ago)
What you think AAPL if is a good potential growth?
Fernando Ricardo (4 months ago)
Great Video mate, well done. Thanks
Oleg Mitsura (4 months ago)
Wouldn't big money run into shorter maturities? What's the advantage of running into long duration bonds in rising rate environment?
Rohit Kumar (4 months ago)
Scary times ahead. Saw it here first
Tim Allsopp (4 months ago)
Have you heard of Richard Ney?
kilgoring troutless (4 months ago)
Randy, really appreciate your work but have to disagree on pension selling being a big driver of future market downside. I would be happy to have a conversation about public pensions and the vilifying them by many some other time and in a more appropriate location, I will stick to the fundamental issues I see and why I think we are headed much lower. We just had the longest bull run in history. The run for the most part was based on a synchronized Central Bank policy that created cheap money for capital investment and speculation. The move up in all the world market disguised an underlying weakness in the growth of real wages for the vast majority of world populations. This in turn resulted in the blaming of others and the rise in populism and our current administration in the US, Brazil and some of the European countries. I believe that if the Presidential election had turned out differently, we would have had a bear market in 2016 and we may have been better off. Instead, we got a two year supercharged parabolic end. The market went up based on the theory that the combination of tax and regulation cuts were going to fuel another leg higher in the markets. The economy was almost at full employment when the tax cuts went into effect meaning we were already creating maximum potential income. Based on that, in a capitalist system, if you want more growth you need to give buyers more income to buy things. Instead we got a tax cut for business with the argument that giving more money to producers would create more jobs because now they could invest capital without paying taxes on those investments. Now everyone is figuring out that the only increase in tax revenue is from repatriation of overseas profit because supply doesn't come before demand so companies are not spending on capital investment. In addition you have a trade war between the two largest economies, a blowing up of most of the trade and peace treaties and a worldwide return to tribalism and less global trade, none of which bode well for higher stock market prices. For all the crap they gave you on the way up, I don't think you are near bearish enough now. The market participants have still not figured out we are not going to new highs, when they do, this is going to be ugly. Thanks again. A big fan.
absoluttchamp (4 months ago)
This is so good that I will not share it with anyone else.
Mahmoud Hilal (4 months ago)
Extremely interesting information and analysis
Peter Oitzinger (4 months ago)
Randy, you're brilliant. Invaluable insights. Thank you so very much for this information.
sonny andreotte (4 months ago)
Hey California ive got great news. In addition to becoming a 3rd world hell hole calpers is evaporating as well. Lol.
absoluttchamp (4 months ago)
Socialism is awesome!
Rahul Chahal (4 months ago)
Awesome analysis, very well researched and easy to understand. I agree there maybe a trigger but the margin debt by itself can be quite a weight under which the stock markets could crumble. It is also healthy else we could have a Japan like scenario.
Richard Gardner (4 months ago)
Love the perspective, as a long investor fundamentals help me decide if I should invest but technicals help me decide when to invest. This double perspective is great and would love to see more.
Rob Roy (4 months ago)
Was watching Kevin O'Leary on CNBC and he just said until the treasuries start going up He couldn't buy equities. Apparently the failure of them to rise while the market is slicing through big support levels is spooking him too.
kilgoring troutless (4 months ago)
Thanks Randy.
Ming Li (4 months ago)
I wish I found your channel earlier. Every single video you post is so informative and helpful. Thank you so much for posting these.
sbkpilot11 (4 months ago)
superb video, thanks!!
TWDxKILL3R (4 months ago)
If you have all your money in stocks, you can get blessed or get fucked. If you have them all in bonds, you can be blessed but just a little. If you have half and half, you get fucked and blessed, but hopefully blessed more than fucked, not fucked more than blessed. Your welcome. GOOD LUCK! 👍
HurryCrane Annie (4 months ago)
Thank you! really good video :-)
Larry Low (4 months ago)
If that's true about the Pension Funds tanking stocks ? Powell the Fed would know there the one to be blamed for excess Interest rate increases Are they that dumm ?
David Moore (4 months ago)
Excellent analysis.
whydotheheathensrage (4 months ago)
TZA (etf) put in a large doji on the yearly...i never ignore a doji when it paints. May be too early as my other indicators have not crossed yet, but i am expecting an intermediate rally .. Probably starting this afternoon somewhere..
Marc Duchamp (4 months ago)
Great analysis thumbs up!!!
Files Shared (4 months ago)
Can you give an analysis on the buyback blackout? Once buybacks resumes, this downtrend should reverse?
WEAREMAGA (4 months ago)
Second mouse gets the cheese. Lesson: Dont be the first mouse. Thanks Randy
Gary65437 (4 months ago)
Very interesting look at pension funds, margin debt, massive bubble and the "calm before the storm".
choco empir (4 months ago)
i have been watching you for a while and i agree with most what you are talking abt but smart money index shows that smart money is out since January 2018 and didn't buy feb 2018 low at all which mean they know something coming. i was not believe that but one of the most famous trader said that before all you see in the market since Feb 2018 is just short selling cover and buyback especially apple stock. the recent sell off is look like the seller knows and confident abt that the buyer will come and will give me better price so i don't need to be in rush , cos no one believe that this market can go down but the liquidity is going down and at some point big selloff one last point : all the world currency is getting ripped against the dollar and most companies with international income getting big hit especially companies that sell in china even if they don't see it now will got next quarter
a64750 (4 months ago)
Trend line and moving average breaks speak volume
Eiron (4 months ago)
Peter Schiff is talking about a coming bear market aswell
Mark Cochran (4 months ago)
And then maybe they can make a YouTube hologram space rocket video (because it will be the distant future I hope) “Eiron was right” and talk about how you predicted your own death
Mark Cochran (4 months ago)
When is Peter Schiff NOT saying there is a coming bear market? If you say “today I’m going to die” every morning when you wake up, eventually it will happen.
kilgoring troutless (4 months ago)
If you have a video in the last ten years when Peter Schiff is not talking about the coming bear market I would love to see it.
Captain Flip (4 months ago)
He is the best
synthartist69 (4 months ago)
One of your best videos I have watched.. thank you

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