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Search results “Psychology of intelligence analysis richards j heuer”
influential/favorite books
 
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Every time I watch this it reminds me of how great these books are, how much I want to re-read them all immediately. Tho I imagine that for someone who has never read any of them it's just a video of a bunch of books. Music: "Slow Motion(Explicit Version)" from "Third Eye Blind: A Collection (Remastered)" It's my favorite gangsta easy listening song of all time :-P (I just saw the original and realized I forgot "Til We Have Faces" and some others by C.S. Lewis) I'm sure there are plenty of books I forgot to include and will feel stupid immediately after posting this video. -Nathan Deathbird Stories - Harlan Ellison I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream - Harlan Ellison Collected Fictions - Jorge Luis Borges Labyrinths - Jorge Luis Borges Choke - Chuck Palahniuk Survivor - Chuck Palahniuk To a God Unknown - John Steinbeck Ishmael - Daniel Quinn Cat's Cradle - Kurt Vonnegut Breakfast of Champions - Kurt Vonnegut Poker Without Cards - Ben Mack The Complete Saki - Saki Driving Blind - Ray Bradbury Veronika Decides to Die - Paulo Coelho American Gods - Neil Gaiman Neverwhere - Neil Gaiman The Virgin Suicides - Jeffrey Eugenides The Cheese Monkeys - Chip Kidd The Playboy Book of Science Fiction and Fantasy A Scanner Darkly - Philip K. Dick Clans of the Alphane Moon - Philip K. Dick Snowcrash - Neal Stephenson Ender's Game - Orson Scott Card The Princess Bride - William Goldman the perks of being a wallflower - Stephen Chbosky Very Far Away From Anywhere Else - Ursula K. LeGuin Wag the Dog - Larry Beinhart Job: A Comedy of Justice - Robert A. Heinlein Picnic, Lightning - Billy Collins Down and Out in Paris and London - George Orwell Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance - Robert M. Pirsig Lila: an Inquiry into Morals - Robert M. Pirsig Party of One: The Loner's Manifesto - Anneli Rufus Tao Te Ching - Lao Tsu The True Believer - Eric Hoffer The Wisdom of Insecurity - Alan W. Watts I and Thou - Martin Buber Code - Charles Petzold The Pursuit of Attention - Charles Derber Catch Me If You Can - Frank W. Abagnale Class - Paul Fussell The Meme Machine - Susan Blackmore War is a Racket - Brig. Gen. Smedley D. Butler Propaganda - Jacques Ellul Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion - Robert B. Cialdini, PH.D. DSM-IV The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis - Richards J. Heuer Jr. The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making - Scott Plous Fooled By Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Meditations - Marcus Aurelius Hagakure: Book of the Samurai The Art of Living - Epictetus
Views: 37216 DimensionTornFree
Analysis of competing hypotheses | Wikipedia audio article
 
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This is an audio version of the Wikipedia Article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_competing_hypotheses 00:01:09 1 Process 00:04:10 2 Strengths 00:04:48 3 Weaknesses 00:07:51 3.1 Structured analysis of competing hypotheses 00:08:58 3.2 Other approaches to formalism 00:10:02 4 Automation 00:11:00 5 See also 00:11:09 6 Notes 00:11:18 7 External links Listening is a more natural way of learning, when compared to reading. Written language only began at around 3200 BC, but spoken language has existed long ago. Learning by listening is a great way to: - increases imagination and understanding - improves your listening skills - improves your own spoken accent - learn while on the move - reduce eye strain Now learn the vast amount of general knowledge available on Wikipedia through audio (audio article). You could even learn subconsciously by playing the audio while you are sleeping! If you are planning to listen a lot, you could try using a bone conduction headphone, or a standard speaker instead of an earphone. Listen on Google Assistant through Extra Audio: https://assistant.google.com/services/invoke/uid/0000001a130b3f91 Other Wikipedia audio articles at: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=wikipedia+tts Upload your own Wikipedia articles through: https://github.com/nodef/wikipedia-tts Speaking Rate: 0.8784042140836096 Voice name: en-GB-Wavenet-A "I cannot teach anybody anything, I can only make them think." - Socrates SUMMARY ======= The analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) allegedly provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. It was developed by Richards (Dick) J. Heuer, Jr., a 45-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, in the 1970s for use by the Agency. ACH is used by analysts in various fields who make judgments that entail a high risk of error in reasoning. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve.ACH was a step forward in intelligence analysis methodology, but it was first described in relatively informal terms. Producing the best available information from uncertain data remains the goal of researchers, tool-builders, and analysts in industry, academia and government. Their domains include data mining, cognitive psychology and visualization, probability and statistics, etc. Abductive reasoning is an earlier concept with similarities to ACH.
Views: 11 wikipedia tts
Auburn Coach Wife Kristi Malzahn Agrees with Match & eHarmony: Men are Jerks
 
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My advice is this: Settle! That's right. Don't worry about passion or intense connection. Don't nix a guy based on his annoying habit of yelling "Bravo!" in movie theaters. Overlook his halitosis or abysmal sense of aesthetics. Because if you want to have the infrastructure in place to have a family, settling is the way to go. Based on my observations, in fact, settling will probably make you happier in the long run, since many of those who marry with great expectations become more disillusioned with each passing year. (It's hard to maintain that level of zing when the conversation morphs into discussions about who's changing the diapers or balancing the checkbook.) Obviously, I wasn't always an advocate of settling. In fact, it took not settling to make me realize that settling is the better option, and even though settling is a rampant phenomenon, talking about it in a positive light makes people profoundly uncomfortable. Whenever I make the case for settling, people look at me with creased brows of disapproval or frowns of disappointment, the way a child might look at an older sibling who just informed her that Jerry's Kids aren't going to walk, even if you send them money. It's not only politically incorrect to get behind settling, it's downright un-American. Our culture tells us to keep our eyes on the prize (while our mothers, who know better, tell us not to be so picky), and the theme of holding out for true love (whatever that is—look at the divorce rate) permeates our collective mentality. Even situation comedies, starting in the 1970s with The Mary Tyler Moore Show and going all the way to Friends, feature endearing single women in the dating trenches, and there's supposed to be something romantic and even heroic about their search for true love. Of course, the crucial difference is that, whereas the earlier series begins after Mary has been jilted by her fiancé, the more modern-day Friends opens as Rachel Green leaves her nice-guy orthodontist fiancé at the altar simply because she isn't feeling it. But either way, in episode after episode, as both women continue to be unlucky in love, settling starts to look pretty darn appealing. Mary is supposed to be contentedly independent and fulfilled by her newsroom family, but in fact her life seems lonely. Are we to assume that at the end of the series, Mary, by then in her late 30s, found her soul mate after the lights in the newsroom went out and her work family was disbanded? If her experience was anything like mine or that of my single friends, it's unlikely. And while Rachel and her supposed soul mate, Ross, finally get together (for the umpteenth time) in the finale of Friends, do we feel confident that she'll be happier with Ross than she would have been had she settled down with Barry, the orthodontist, 10 years earlier? She and Ross have passion but have never had long-term stability, and the fireworks she experiences with him but not with Barry might actually turn out to be a liability, given how many times their relationship has already gone up in flames. It's equally questionable whether Sex and the City's Carrie Bradshaw, who cheated on her kindhearted and generous boyfriend, Aidan, only to end up with the more exciting but self-absorbed Mr. Big, will be better off in the framework of marriage and family. (Some time after the breakup, when Carrie ran into Aidan on the street, he was carrying his infant in a Baby Björn. Can anyone imagine Mr. Big walking around with a Björn?)
Views: 206096 Shari Wing

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